Tag Archives: Phillies

How Charlie Ferguson and a Toad Could Have Altered Phillies’ History

May 13, 2015 Chris Schreiner 5 Comments

Charlie Ferguson was a young promising pitcher for the Philadelphia Quakers in the 1880’s who more than held his own with the bat. SABR biographer Paul Hoffman claims that Charlie Ferguson was one of the “first tragic figures in major-league baseball” and could have “become one of the greatest players of all time”. Ferguson passed away at the age of 25 before the 1888 season from typhoid fever. His career stats were impressive.

On some days when he wasn’t pitching, he played in the field. In what would be his final season, he played 27 games at 2B, 5 at 3B, and 6 in the OF. In 300 plate appearances, he hit .337 with 85 RBIs, 13 SB, and an .886 OPS. He was well on his way to being an everyday player.

In his SABR bio, Hoffman notes that in 1925 – a whole 37 years after his death – a sports editor for the Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger called Ferguson “the greatest ballplayer who ever lived.” Hoffman concludes the bio by saying “One can only imagine how many games Ferguson might have won or what kind of everyday player he would have developed into had he lived to play an additional 12 to 15 years.”

Charlie Ferguson (from Baseball-Reference.com)

We decided to imagine by replaying history as if Charlie had never succumbed to typhoid fever.

We went back to 1888 using OOTP 2016 (and restructured the league to have accurate teams and rosters for that year). Charlie Ferguson then took his rightful place at the top of the rotation as well as their starting second baseman on days he did not pitch (all team settings were set to AI control except for the lineups and rotation for Philadelphia to accommodate for Ferguson playing every day. The game AI was in charge of everything else including all trades and signings).

The 1888 season for the Philadelphia Quakers as a whole did not start off too well. After a quick start they had fallen back to .500 by mid-May. Then the injury bug hit, and four regulars went down for the bulk of the rest of the year. While the Quakers rallied in the second half, they had dug themselves too deep a hole behind the Detroit Wolverines. Ferguson finished the season 30-23 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, leading the National League in WAR (10.1), innings pitched (479.2), most K/9 (4.50), and fewest BB/9 (1.05). He was tied for second in shutouts with 3. At the plate he hit a respectable .275 in 374 AB with 6 HR and 44 RBI, finishing with a 3.7 batting WAR, which was third on the Quakers.

His 1889 season ended early as he succumbed to injury on June 20th. While his pitching that year was not up to par (10-10, 3.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) his bat was more than making up for it. He had been leading the National League in OPS (.971) and was second in BA, OBP, and SLG when he went down.

In 1890, the now 27-year old was hitting his prime. The Quakers had now officially changed their name to the Phillies, and Ferguson continued to anchor their pitching staff. The Phillies were a game behind the Pittsburgh Alleghenys approaching the last series of the season. As luck would have it, they faced the Alleghenys in that series. Ferguson was given the ball for the first game of the three-game set. Unfortunately, Ferguson did not have his best stuff and he wasn’t helped by 5 Phillies errors. The Pirates won 7-2. They finished 91-63, one game behind Pittsburgh. That last start notwithstanding, Ferguson had bounced back from his injury to further his reputation, going 27-19 and leading the league in ERA (2.28) and WHIP (1.10). He finished 3rd in WAR (9.9). Playing right field when he wasn’t pitching, he again finished third on the team in batting WAR (3.9), hitting .283 with 73 RBI. If baseball back then had a most valuable player award and an award to honor the best pitcher, Ferguson would have won both of them.

1891 once again started slowly for both the Phillies, who quickly sank to 7th place and stayed there for most of the year. Management wouldn’t have it, and made the deal that would be celebrated for a generation. The Phillies traded four players: Billy Clingman, Fred Siefke, Bill Merritt, and Floyd Ritter to the Louisville Colonels for Toad Ramsey.

Toad, apart from having a memorable first name, is widely credited with inventing the knuckleball thanks to a tendon injury he had suffered in his index finger. In 1886 and 1887 he had two dominant seasons including one where he struck out 499 batters. In real life his career took a very quick downturn and he was out of the league after the 1890 season. However, in this world he was still the single most dominant pitcher in the American Association, winning 165 games over five years.

Toad Ramsey (from Baseball-Reference.com)

The deal struck new life into the Phillies who went on a second half tear. In September they brought it to a new level, winning an incredible 16 straight games to end the season, with Ferguson winning his last 7 starts. But it was too little too late as they finished 2 games behind the Chicago Colts. But with two superstars leading the team, the time was ripe for the Phillies to finally make a push for a championship.

1892 turned out to be Ferguson’s best year yet. He tossed his first no-hitter on August 19th against the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up only 1 walk. Ferguson and Toad Ramsey provided a dominant one-two punch that propelled the Phillies to their first ever National League pennant.* While Ferguson certainly shined, going 28-20 with a 2.24 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.7 WAR, he was outdone by Toad who won the pitching triple crown, going 33-16 with a 1.59 ERA and 332 Ks.

With Toad and Ferguson, the Phillies cruised to the NL pennant again in 1893, finishing 13 games ahead of the Pirates. Ramsey won the pitching triple crown for the second straight year going an amazing 31-8 with a 1.97 ERA and 201 Ks. Ferguson again played second fiddle going 25-10 with a 3.25 ERA.

Toad would continue his amazing run, winning the pitching triple crown for an incredible third straight year in 1894, and fourth in 1895. But not all was stellar with Ferguson. In 1893 he had his worst season on the mound since his injury-shortened 1889 campaign, with the fewest wins, innings pitched, Ks, and WAR since that season. As their center fielder on days when he wasn’t pitching, Ferguson also had his worst year at the plate since his rookie campaign of 1884, hitting only .248 with 47 RBI and a 1.4 WAR in 508 plate appearances. Was the grind of playing every day getting to him?

Prior to the 1895 season in which Ferguson’s pitching stats declined farther, the decision was made to remove him from playing the field on his non-pitching days. Instead, Kid Gleason – who would often have the back end spot in the Phillies rotation – became a full time 3B, allowing Ferguson to focus solely on pitching. That move paid off as Ferguson had a bounce-back year at the age of 32, going 28-11 with a 2.75 ERA and a 9.2 WAR. The added rest also helped his hitting, as he topped .300 for the first time since 1889. More importantly Ferguson and Ramsey once again led the Phillies to a runaway NL pennant, as they won the league by 21 games over Cincinnati.

On May 9, 1896 Charlie Ferguson and the Phillies beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 17-1 for Ferguson’s 300th win, going the distance and giving up only 5 hits and no walks. Although the Phillies fell short of the pennant that season, Ferguson and Ramsey would win it again in 1897 for the Phillies’ fourth title.

Things went downhill for the Phillies as the century came to a close. They were leading the National League in late June of 1898 but then went on a 7-30 run to drop to last place despite excellent pitching from Ferguson and Ramsey. Ramsey would once again win the pitching triple crown (for an incredible 5th time in his career) and also notched his 400th win during that campaign.

Ferguson would get his 400th win in July of 1900 in a 3-2 win over the Chicago Orphans. The Phillies were back on top as they had signed Deacon Phillippe who now gave the Phillies three formidable starters. They won the National League pennant by 11 games over the Brooklyn Superbas.

That would be Ferguson’s and Ramsey’s last pennant. Toad would go on to win his 450th game in June of 1901, and Ferguson his in July of 1903 at the age of 40. On August 15th 1903, 39-year old Toad Ramsey beat the Chicago Cubs 9-4 for his 500th career win, but those two milestones weren’t enough as the Phillies finished third in the NL. In 1904 Ferguson would be removed from the rotation and relegated to mop up duties while Ramsey remained strong, winning his unprecedented 550th game September 27, 1905. and his 600th on July 31, 1908.

Ferguson would retire at the end of the 1905 season with a career record of 456-312, a 2.85 ERA and a 146.2 career WAR. His 456 wins would have put him second behind Cy Young, and his 146.2 career WAR would have been third behind Cy Young and Walter Johnson.

Toad would stick around for four more seasons, and would win his 600th game on July 31, 1908. He retired at the end of the 1909 season with a mind-boggling 603 wins, 5587 strikeouts, and a career 257.2 WAR. His wins and career WAR would top today’s all-time leaderboard, as would his 8636 career innings pitched. He would have been second all-time in strikeouts behind Nolan Ryan.

Meanwhile, without Charlie Ferguson and Toad Ramsey the real life Phillies would have to wait until 1915 for their first pennant and 1980 for their first World Series win.

* The World Series in its present form did not start until 1903. There was a championship series between the American Association and the National League up until the American Association folded after the 1891 season. While in some years there was either a split season championship series or a 1st vs 2nd place series at the end of the year, those permutations were not included in this sim, so there was no championship series from 1892 until 1903.

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2015 NL Team Free Agent WAR Analysis

Image February 28, 2015 Craig Kornacki Leave a comment

Pitchers and catchers have reported. People need reasons to look toward spring especially if you live in the Eastern half of the country. So, let’s evaluate some ballplayers!

In this post, I will be evaluating the offseason free agent acquisitions for the National League. I will be using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to evaluate the fifteen NL teams and its players. (WAR stats are courtesy of www.fangraphs.com – if you click on the player’s name, it should direct you to their website.)

Braves

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Nick Markakis	RF	Orioles	31	2.5	0.9	3	$33.00	Braves	12/3/2014	4	$44.00
Jason Grilli	RP	Angels	38	0.3	0.6			Braves	12/23/2014	2	$8.30
Josh Outman	RP	Yankees	30	0	0			Braves	1/7/2015	1	$0.90
Jim Johnson	RP	Tigers	31	0	0.2			Braves	12/3/2014	1	$1.60
Jonny Gomes	LF	Athletics	34	-0.3	-0.3			Braves	1/22/2015	1	$4.00
A.J. Pierzynski	C	Cardinals	38	-0.4	0.7			Braves	12/27/2014	1	$2.00
Alberto Callaspo	2B/DH	Athletics	31	-1.1	0.6			Braves	12/9/2014	1	$3.00

Nick Markakis seems to generate the same WAR every year. His projected WAR this year is a quite a bit lower (a 64% decrease) probably because he’s coming over to the NL where there’s better pitching and his home park is historically a pitcher’s park. He’s past peak age and he has Freddie Freeman’s company as the only other true power threat in the Braves lineup. Should be an interesting year for Mr. Markakis.

Jonny Gomes has a cool name. That’s about all I can say about him.

AJ Pierzynski is now 38 years old. When the heck did that happen? He goes from the Cardinals to the Braves. Fangraphs predicts him to be above replacement level with a projection of 0.7. Pierzynski’s best days seem to be behind him, but you could do worse at the catcher’s spot.

Brewers

Rangers

0.8

0.5

Brewers

1/30/2015

$3.00

Neal Cotts is still playing?!? His K/9 last year was 8.51. Not bad, but not dominant for a reliever. He’s a lefty so he’ll probably play for about 8 more years.

Cardinals

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Mark Reynolds	1B/3B	Brewers	31	1.6	0.3	1	$4.00	Cardinals	12/11/2014	1	$2.00
Carlos Villanueva	RP	Cubs	31	1.1	0.3			Cardinals	2/4/2015	1	$0.20
Matt Belisle	RP	Rockies	34	0.5	0			Cardinals	12/2/2014	1	$3.50

The Cardinals have picked up the MLB single season strikeout leader in Mark Reynolds. But, he did hit 22 HR last year. His fellow power lineup mates are Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta. He may have a decent year power-wise.

I keep waiting for Carlos Villanueva to do something exciting like: throw a no-hitter, be an ace starter, or a become a closer. His career averages: K/9 – 7.77, BB/9 – 3.0, HR/9 – 1.21. Ah, that’s the problem… gives up too many long balls. STL’s home park will not help with that.

Belisle is your average joe middle reliever. His career HR/9 is below 1.0. Not bad!

Cubs

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Jon Lester	SP	Athletics	31	6.1	3.8	6	$132.00	Cubs	12/9/2014	6	$155.00
Jason Hammel	SP	Athletics	32	1.7	2.3	3	$27.00	Cubs	12/8/2014	2	$20.00
Chris Denorfia	RF/LF	Mariners	34	0.4	0.9			Cubs	1/6/2015	1	$2.60
David Ross	C	Red Sox	37	0.2	0.9			Cubs	12/23/2014	2	$5.00
Jason Motte	RP	Cardinals	32	0	0			Cubs	12/15/2014	1	$4.50

Jon Lester is an above average pitcher, but wow, that’s a lot of moolah. Well, good for him. He’s a left-hander. He’s in his prime. And he’s pitching half his games at Wrigley Field. He should have a solid year. But maybe not as good as last year according to projected WAR.

Hammel had a great year last year. His WAR was 1.7 . FanGraphs predicts 2.3. I predict a worse year. He’s prone to the long ball and his career HR/9 is over 1.0

Looks like the Cubs picked up a couple of veterans to fill out the roster in Denorfia and Ross.

Jason Motte did not pitch in 2013. He pitched some last year, but he’s still trying to shake the rust off. We’ll see if he can help out the Cubs in ’15.

Diamondbacks

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Gerald Laird	C	Braves	35	-0.1	0.7			Diamondbacks	2/2/2015	1	$0.20

Gerald Laird is your prototypical backup catcher. Good D, no bat.

Dodgers

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Brandon McCarthy	SP	Yankees	31	3	2.6	3	$36.00	Dodgers	12/16/2014	4	$48.00
Brett Anderson	SP	Rockies	27	1.1	2.1	1	$7.00	Dodgers	12/31/2014	1	$10.00
Erik Bedard	RP	Rays	35	0.2	-0.6			Dodgers	1/18/2015	1	$0.20
Sergio Santos	RP	Blue Jays	31	0	0.4			Dodgers	12/30/2014	1	$0.20
Dustin McGowan	RP	Blue Jays	32	0	-0.1			Dodgers	2/23/2015	1	$0.50
Brandon Beachy	SP		28		0.7			Dodgers	2/21/2015	1	$2.80

Slight dip in Projected WAR for Brandon McCarthy. His best WAR year was 4.5 with Oakland. He is the magical prime age of 31 which is half of the success formula for pitchers coming to the NL. Too bad he’s not a lefty.

Brett Anderson, another former A, is a lefty, but he’s only 27. His WAR totals are rather erratic : 2009 – 3.6; 2010 – 2.4; 2011- 1.0 2012 – 0.9; 2013 – 0.3; 2014- 1.1 . Maybe he’ll get things going in the right direction for Dodger Blue. Moving from Colorado to LA should help.

Remember when Sergio Santos was a shortstop prospect? No? I do.

Dustin McGowan reminds me of Carlos Villanueva. Scouts rave about his arm and talent. Well, when’s he going to something with it? Last great year was 2007 – WAR – 3.5. Move to the NL might bump him up some, but it’s gotta be close to his last chance.

Giants

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Nori Aoki	RF	Royals	33	2.3	1.6	2	$14.00	Giants	1/16/2015	1	$4.00
Jake Peavy	SP	Giants	33	1.9	1.2	2	$24.00	Giants	12/19/2014	2	$24.00
Ryan Vogelsong	SP	Giants	37	1	0.6	1	$7.00	Giants	1/23/2015	1	$4.00
Sergio Romo	RP	Giants	31	0	0.3	2	$12.00	Giants	12/22/2014	2	$15.00

Nori Aoki is the poor man’s Ichiro Suzuki. Guy knows how to rake. He can steal a bit- probably needs to be given the green light more. WAR is projected to go down, but not much. His WARs are 2012 – 2.3; 2013- 1.6; 2014 – 2.3; Projected 2015 – 1.6. Consistent.

Jake Peavy should be a 100 years old by now. Just kidding. Just seems like he’s been around forever. His K/9s are slowly trending downward, but not a bad option for a #3 starter.

Sergio Romo is the Giants closer. He saved 38 games in 2013 and dipped down to 23 last year. His HR/9 last year was 1.40. He will have to correct that if he wants to remain closer.

Marlins

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Michael Morse	1B/LF	Giants	32	1	0.8	1	$7.00	Marlins	12/17/2014	2	$16.00
Ichiro Suzuki	RF	Yankees	41	0.4	-0.7	1	$5.00	Marlins	1/23/2015	1	$2.00
Reid Brignac	3B	Phillies	29	-0.3	-1.1			Marlins	11/19/2014	1	$0.20

I always think that Michael Morse is overrated. He hit 31 HR in 2011, so he has power. He’s an OK power hitter and his 2015 Projected WAR agrees: 0.8

ICHIRO! The MLB single season hit leader will be taking his farewell tour to Miami. ICHIRO struck out 3 times as often as he walked last year, which seems very un-ICHIRO-like. He stole 15 bases last year probably mostly on brains and guile alone. But, he is 41.

Reid Brignac. Likely trying to win a bench spot with the Marlins this year.

Mets

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Michael Cuddyer	1B/RF	Rockies	35	1.5	0.7	2	$18.00	Mets	11/10/2014	2	$21.00
John Mayberry	1B/LF	Blue Jays	31	0.2	-0.2			Mets	12/15/2015	1	$1.50

Michael Cuddyer signed with the Mets. Did the Mets move those fences in yet? Cuddyer is a nice hitter at his age, but his home park will not help him.

Nationals

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Max Scherzer	SP	Tigers	30	5.6	4.1	7	$168.00	Nationals	1/21/2014	7	$210.00
Casey Janssen	RP	Blue Jays	33	0.1	0.2			Nationals	2/2/2015	1	$5.00
Heath Bell	RP	Rays	37	0	-0.2			Nationals	12/27/2014	1	$1.00
Dan Uggla	2B	Giants	34	-0.8	-0.3			Nationals	12/26/2014	1	$0.20

The Nats made a big splash in the offseason signing Max Scherzer to a 7 year, $210 million contract adding him to an already loaded pitching staff. This guy is a dynamite pitcher already and now he’s coming to the NL. Projected WAR says 4.1, but I say sky’s the limit, folks.

Casey Janssen’s Projected WAR for 2015 went up by 50 percent from his actual WAR in 2014. It’s that NL effect, I tell ya. Will compete for the closing job in Washington.

Dan Uggla has an eye condition, according to RotoWire News, which may put his 2015 in jeopardy.

Heath Bell is trying to turn his career around. His K/9 as recently as 2013 was 9.87.

Padres

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
James Shields	SP	Royals	33	3.7	2.7	5	$90.00	Padres	2/12/2015	4	$75.00
Brandon Morrow	RP	Blue Jays	30	0.4	-0.2	1	$6.00	Padres	12/16/2014	1	$2.50
Clint Barmes	2B/SS	Pirates	35	0.3	0			Padres	12/3/2014	1	$1.50
Josh Johnson	SP		31		2.1	1	$5.00	Padres	1/7/2015	1	$1.00

James Shields has pitched 200+ innings 8 seasons in a row. He’s a good pitcher. How much more can the arm take? Stay tuned.

Brandon Morrow’s BB/9 for his career is 4.16. Pass.

Clint Barmes seems to be coming towards the end of his career. He’s a decent fielder so he’ll be probably be brought in for defensive purposes.

Josh Johnson has had 2 Tommy John surgeries. The odds of coming back from this are long. Hopefully, luck is on his side.

Phillies

Aaron Harang is a serviceable starting pitcher. He’s going to Philadelphia which could make things tough considering their recent history. His projected WAR this year is 0.0. On the plus side, Philly’s home park is a pitcher’s park, which could bail him out of HR trouble.

Billingsley’s had surgeries in two straight years: TJ and torn flexor repair. His career total WAR is 17.2. Best season was 2008 9.01 K/9; 4.1 WAR.

Pirates

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Francisco Liriano	SP	Pirates	31	1.6	2.9	3	$36.00	Pirates	12/12/2014	3	$39.00
A.J. Burnett	SP	Phillies	38	1	1.9	1	$10.00	Pirates	11/14/2014	1	$8.50
Corey Hart	DH	Mariners	32	-1.2	0.7			Pirates	12/19/2014	1	$2.50

Fangraphs is predicting quite the bump up in WAR for Francisco Liriano 1.6 to 2.9. He’s a lefty and he’s 31. Could be a big year!

Burnett is back with the Pirates after a lost year with the Phillies. PNC is surprisingly more of a hitter’s park than Citizen’s Bank so Burnett’s HR total might increase. Keep an eye on it.

Hart is quite injury prone lately with knee and hamstring problems. He will be platooning with Pedro Alavarez at first base. But, he’s got some punch in that bat. Might be a sneaky good pickup for the Bucs.

Reds

Name	Position	2014 Team	Age	2014 WAR	2015 WAR	CS Years	CS Salary	New Team	Date	Years	Salary
Burke Badenhop	RP	Red Sox	32	1	0.2			Reds	2/7/2015	1	$2.50
Kevin Gregg	RP	Marlins	36	0	-0.1			Reds	2/7/2015	1	$0.20
Paul Maholm	RP	Dodgers	32	0	0			Reds	2/3/2015	1	$0.20

Kevin Gregg. Hmm. He threw a cutter 21.5% of the time last year. Might help him in his new home digs in Cincy.Burke Badenhop before been better? A bad attempt at an alliterative sentence. What I mean to say is… has Badenhop ever been good? Last year was his best WAR year at 1.0. Half his home games in Fenway Park! Wow.

Paul Maholm. He’s a lefty. He’s 32. About the best I can say about him is his GB% last year was 54.4%.

Rockies

Axford had a couple of high save total years with the Brewers in 2010 (46) and 2011 (35). He had two WAR years of 1.8. Seems to have fallen off a cliff somewhat. Could bounce back in Colorado, but he’s gotta keep the ball in the park.

Betancourt has had some crazy command years. 89 Ks to 8 BBs in 2010 for the Rockies for a K/BB ratio of 11.25. He’s fallen off in recent years. He signed a minor league deal and hopes to hang for a last year of glory in the Mile High City.

Next Up: The American League!