In honor of Billy Wagner following us on Twitter (@BullpenByComm), and since he was always a favorite fantasy closer (with the exception of the 2000 season), we thought we’d see what might have transpired with his career if things had happened just a little differently.
We started an OOTP historical league in 1995 – the year Billy made his debut with the Houston Astros.
In our alternate universe, Billy started at AA Jackson but quickly made the jump to Tucson in the PCL. Even though he struggled with control, giving up 7 walks in 12 innings, the Astros pulled the trigger and called him up on June 1st, 1995 as lefty reliever Pedro A. Martinez was ineffective. Wagner made his major league debut on June 3rd against the Atlanta Braves – and suffered the loss giving up a run in the 7th on a fielder’s choice after David Justice led off with a double and went to third on a sac bunt. But he was in the big leagues to stay.
His first save came on July 18th, filling in for a tired Todd Jones who had pitched in 4 of the past 5 games. He got the last two outs against the Dodgers on 4 pitches. However, his rookie season came to an abrupt end on August 20th when he left a win against the Reds with discomfort. He was diagnosed with a partially torn labrum, though doctors assured him he’d be ready for spring training. He finished his rookie season going 0-1 with 1 save and a 4.62 ERA over 25 1/3 IP.
His path to being a closer was delayed as the Astros bolstered their bullpen after the ’95 season by signing free agent closer John Wetteland, likely due to uncertainty around Wagner’s late season injury. Wagner would spend the next two seasons being the primary setup man, leading the team in games pitched and holds both years.
Billy’s breakout year came in 1998. In a bold move, manager Terry Collins announced in spring training that he was switching the roles of Wetteland and Wagner. Collins was on the hot seat as the Astros had a disappointing finish to the ’97 season. While Wetteland wasn’t thrilled with the news, he reluctantly accepted his role and proved to be a reliable setup man. Billy made sure his manager’s gamble paid off and went on to lead the NL in saves with 48. His final line of 10-3 with 48 saves, a 2.12 ERA and 93 K’s in 72.1 IP helped him finish third in Cy Young voting. He led the Astros to the top of the Central Division, though they lost in the NLCS to the Padres.
Wagner saved 40 games for the Astros in each of his next two seasons, though issues with control were popping up, walking 46 in 76IP in 1999 and 40 in 63.1IP in 2000. The Astros finished second both years, and Terry Collins was let go for his inability to take the Astros to the next level.
2001 was a year of uncertainty for Wagner. Collins, the man who given Billy his break, was gone. Instead, the Astros hired a rookie manager in Bob Taylor. Wagner was also entering his contract year.
It turned out to be a year of disappointment. The Astros, after finishing first or second since Wagner was on the team, fell to 73-89. Wagner finished with 30 saves and a rather high 4.33 ERA, though his control was returning. He and the Astros failed to come to terms on a long-term deal and Wagner agreed to give it one more year, signing an extension for well below market value. It was a gamble on Wagner’s part fueled by the very strong free agent crop, headlined by Mariano Rivera.
2002 turned out to be his last year with the Astros. He finished 7-2 with 26 saves and a 2.70 ERA and hit the free agent market. On December 11, 2002 he came to terms on a 1-year $2.72 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles to serve as their closer. His gamble hadn’t paid off, as the free agent crop for closers was once again exceptionally strong (in part because Rivera only signed a one year deal and again was the top closer available). He left Houston 2nd all-time in saves but holding the top three spots on the single season saves leaderboard.
He pitched well for the O’s in 2003 saving 36 games with a 3.02 ERA and helped them get to the ALCS, but management didn’t want him back at the price he wanted. Wagner moved on from there, signing his biggest contract to date: a 3-year deal with the Mariners for $11.52 million.
In his three years in Seattle, he saved 31, 36, and 39 games, respectively. On May 22nd, 2006 Wagner entered a game in the 9th against his old team, the Orioles. Up 4-3, he got two quick outs before 2 singles put runners at the corners. He got Toby Hall to meekly ground out to record his 300th career save. After the 2006 season, Wagner decided to hit the free agent market for a chance at one last long-term contract, and left Seattle as their all-time saves leader (106).
The now 35-year old stayed in the AL West, signing with Oakland for 3 years and $8.08 million, even though Oakland had lost over 100 games the past three seasons. Wagner helped stabilize Oakland’s bullpen by racking up 28 saves and the A’s improved by 16 games in 2006 finishing 77-85. Meanwhile Wagner’s old team – the Mariners – made it to the World Series.
In 2007 Wagner fell out of favor with manager Jim Fregosi. The A’s signed Brad Lidge during spring training as bullpen insurance, and Fregosi went straight to him as his closer. The A’s were making a mid-season push for a wildcard spot and went out and traded for Francisco Cordero who took over for Lidge. Suddenly, Wagner found himself third on the closer depth chart and finished with only 3 saves, though he led the team with 22 holds.
Buck Showalter took over the A’s in 2009 and moved Wagner up as the primary setup man to newly acquired closer Mike Gonzalez. Showalter guided the A’s to a World Series championship that year. Unfortunately Wagner was unable to take part in his first chance at World Series glory, as the labrum he partially tore back in 1995 tore again on August 29th. He finished 2009 5-3 with 4 saves and a 3.11 ERA.
Given his shoulder and his age (now 38) Oakland decided not to resign Wagner. The Dodgers were interested, and signed him for 2 years at $8.44 million – the only time Wagner would earn more than $4 million in a season. The Dodgers, coming off a 110-win season, already had Mariano Rivera as their closer, so Wagner once again settled in to be their setup man. Unfortunately the wheels fell off the Dodgers’ bus as their starting staff was ravaged by injuries. The Dodgers became so desperate that they turned to some of their middle relievers to help out. On August 7th, Billy Wagner made the first of 8 career starts in a no-decision against the Nationals going 4.1 innings giving up one run on 6 hits, striking out 4 and walking one. He earned a win in his next start on August 13th against the Braves, going 6 strong giving up one run on only 3 hits. On the 18th against the Rockies he pitched 5.2 shutout innings getting his second (and final) win as a starting pitcher.
Disappointed with the season in which the Dodgers finished last at 70-92 as well as his role on the team, Billy Wagner announced his retirement from baseball on October 31, 2010. He retired fifth all-time in saves with 366 to go along with a 68-63 record in 1041 games. He was an All-Star four times (1998, 1999, 2000, & 2004).
His career pitching stats (click to enlarge):
Comparing fake Billy Wagner to the real Billy Wagner, fake Billy had fewer saves (422 to 366) and fewer All-Star seasons (7 to 4) but more wins (68 to 47) and more games (1041 to 853) – and of course more games started (8 to 0). Both Billy’s never appeared in a World Series game, though the fake Billy was on the DL when his A’s won in 2009. One other important aspect in which the real Billy fared better was in lifetime earnings, as fake Billy’s agent was never able to parlay his 1998 breakout season into a big payday.
