Tag Archives: baseball

What if it was Called Sandy Koufax Surgery?

June 24, 2015 Chris Schreiner Leave a comment

Sandy Koufax was one of the most dominant pitchers in the history of baseball, and at the age of 36 was the youngest to ever be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

(Source: Baseball-Reference.com)

The reason for his enshrinement at such a young age was due to his early retirement due to an arthritic condition in his elbow. He pitched the entire ’65 and ’66 seasons in extreme pain but still dominated, pitching over 320 innings in both seasons going a combined 53-17 with 699 strikeouts – and winning the Cy Young both years.

Koufax retired shortly after the 1966 World Series at the age of 30.

Dr. Frank Jobe once said that Koufax had basically the same injury as Tommy John, and that if he had developed the pioneering surgery ten years earlier (Dr. Jobe was already 41 by the time Koufax retired) the surgery would likely have been named after Koufax instead.

We always find it interesting to play out these “what if” scenarios that abound in baseball, so naturally we wanted to see what might have happened if Sandy Koufax had been able to extend his career.

As always, we used OOTP16, starting a historical league on January 1, 1967. In this world, Koufax became the pioneer for the ligament replacement surgery. Having undergone the surgery immediately after the ’66 World Series meant Koufax would likely be ready to play again by the beginning of the ’68 season.

Without Koufax, the ’67 Dodgers slipped back as their offense struggled, finishing the season 82-80, 17 games back of the Cardinals. But it was their hitting instead of Koufax’s absence that was the major reason, as the Dodgers hit a collective NL worst .236 with a lowly .627 OPS.

Koufax was ready to take his rightful place as the ace of the staff at the beginning of the ’68 season. His first start on Opening Day was against the Phillies. Whether rust or nerves got the best of him, he gave up 3 hits, a walk, and 3 runs in the opening frame. He settled down after that, giving up 7 hits over the final 8 frames for a complete game, but the damage was done and the Dodgers lost 3-2.

A no-decision and a tough luck 1-0 loss dropped him to 0-2 before Koufax really caught his groove, throwing 23 straight scoreless innings. He would improve his record to 4-3 before arm troubles would once again strike. He missed two starts with inflammation and struggled once he came back, uncharacteristically dropping 5 straight decisions, including 2 in which he gave up 5 earned runs. But he bounced back with a complete game shutout of Cincinnati to go into the All-Star break. Despite a 5-8 record, his 2.17 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.2 WAR was good enough for a spot on the All-Star team.

Meanwhile the Dodgers were rebounding from their lackluster ’68 season and were leading the NL at the break – but 5 other teams were within 4.5 games.

Right after the break Don Drysdale wrecked his elbow and would miss the remainder of the season. Without Drysdale and with a completely anemic lineup, the Dodgers couldn’t hold it together in the second half. They plummeted down to 6^th place, 10 games behind the NL champion Phillies.

Koufax finished his comeback season with everything except his W-L record resembling his prior dominant years. He ended 11-16, but with a 2.07 ERA, 273 Ks in 270 IP, and a 10.2 WAR. He led the league in strikeouts, WAR, complete games (18), and shutouts (7). Voters didn’t hold his record against him, as he won his 4^th Cy Young award.

In ’69 with the new NL alignment, the Dodgers still couldn’t quite get it altogether. Shortcomings at the plate were not addressed during the offseason and Drysdale would miss the entire season as well. Though they finished with a winning record (87-75) the Dodgers finished only 4^th in the new NL West, 15 games behind the Astros.

Koufax was still in prime form, however. He finished the season especially strong, going 8-1 over his final 10 starts, 6 of which were complete games. Even with the higher pitching mounds introduced in ’69, at no point during the entire season was his ERA over 2.66. Once again he led the league in strikeouts (320) and WAR (14.0), going 20-10 overall with a 2.10 ERA. He would win both the Cy Young and MVP Award in that season.

The 1970’s arrived and the now 34-year old Koufax wasn’t losing a single step. Again he led the Dodgers’ pitching staff and dominated opposing hitters. A mid-August swoon where he gave up 26 ER over 5 starts was the only blemish, though that period was attributed to some lingering arm issues which caused him to miss 2 starts. Once he returned he went back to his old form, winning his last four decisions.

With Drysdale back, the two of them anchored the pitching staff. The previously anemic Dodgers lineup was bolstered by the production of Al Herrera, who hit 24 HR, a young Steve Garvey, and the acquisition of Earl Williams as the number one catcher, who smashed 40 HR. With all the pieces in place, the Dodgers won the NL West, going 92-69.

Koufax and the Dodgers would face the Phillies for the NL Championship, with Koufax pitching game 1 against Rick Wise. Wise outperformed Koufax pitching 7 shutout innings of 5-hit ball in a 3-0 win. The teams would split the next two before Wise and Koufax would square off again with the Dodgers facing elimination. This time Koufax came out on top 3-2, thanks to a two-run HR from Williams. Drysdale would finish them off in the 5^th game and the Dodgers went on to face the Tigers in the World Series.

Koufax was excellent in his first World Series start since 1966, pitching a complete game 4-hitter with a sac fly as the only run scored. Unfortunately for him, the Tigers had acquired Jerry Reuss who pitched a shutout and the Dodgers lost 1-0. Once again the teams would split the next two games and Koufax would face Reuss in Game Four. Koufax pitched another complete game winning 5-1. The teams would again split the next two games setting up another Koufax/Reuss matchup for the 7^th and decisive game.

Koufax cruised through the first 3 innings but in the 4^th was forced to exit the game as his arm acted up yet again. The bullpen pitched admirably but a solo shot by Jim Spencer in the 5^th was the only run of the game and the Tigers blanked the Dodgers to win the World Series. For Koufax it was a heart wrenching end to an otherwise brilliant season.

1971 was another down year for the Dodgers – their worst since 1958 winning only 75 games. There was one bright spot, which occurred on July 21^st. Koufax took the mound and pitched a complete game 7-hitter against the Reds to win his 200^th career game. He finished that season 17-12 with a 2.26 ERA and 11.9 WAR, good enough for his 6^th Cy Young.

He would win 20 games again in 1972 to go along with a 2.58 ERA and an 8.3 WAR. On October 3^rd he took the mound against the Atlanta Braves who got to him early and often. While he stuck it out to go 7 innings, he tied his career high by giving up 9 earned runs. That outing was topped off by a 2-run HR by Hal McRae. It would be the last pitch Koufax would throw, as he retired at the end of the season at age 36.

Coming back from Tommy John surgery extended Koufax’s career 5 full seasons and allowed him to reach the 200-win milestone along with winning 3 more Cy Youngs and one more MVP. He finished 252-143 with a 2.62 ERA and a career 116.8 WAR. While Koufax certainly wasn’t the only factor, he contributed to giving the Dodgers one extra NL championship than they did in real life, but his arm let him down in the most important game.

So would Koufax coming back have positively or negatively affected his legacy? He still didn’t rack up 300 wins, but his 6 Cy Young Awards would today be second only to Roger Clemens (7) – a number made more impressive by the fact that before his injury it was a combined AL/NL award. Add to that the likelihood that Tommy John surgery would have been called Sandy Koufax surgery makes us wish Dr. Frank Jobe had developed his groundbreaking surgery earlier.

Baseball, Career Replay, OOTP

How Charlie Ferguson and a Toad Could Have Altered Phillies’ History

May 13, 2015 Chris Schreiner 5 Comments

Charlie Ferguson was a young promising pitcher for the Philadelphia Quakers in the 1880’s who more than held his own with the bat. SABR biographer Paul Hoffman claims that Charlie Ferguson was one of the “first tragic figures in major-league baseball” and could have “become one of the greatest players of all time”. Ferguson passed away at the age of 25 before the 1888 season from typhoid fever. His career stats were impressive.

On some days when he wasn’t pitching, he played in the field. In what would be his final season, he played 27 games at 2B, 5 at 3B, and 6 in the OF. In 300 plate appearances, he hit .337 with 85 RBIs, 13 SB, and an .886 OPS. He was well on his way to being an everyday player.

In his SABR bio, Hoffman notes that in 1925 – a whole 37 years after his death – a sports editor for the Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger called Ferguson “the greatest ballplayer who ever lived.” Hoffman concludes the bio by saying “One can only imagine how many games Ferguson might have won or what kind of everyday player he would have developed into had he lived to play an additional 12 to 15 years.”

Charlie Ferguson (from Baseball-Reference.com)

We decided to imagine by replaying history as if Charlie had never succumbed to typhoid fever.

We went back to 1888 using OOTP 2016 (and restructured the league to have accurate teams and rosters for that year). Charlie Ferguson then took his rightful place at the top of the rotation as well as their starting second baseman on days he did not pitch (all team settings were set to AI control except for the lineups and rotation for Philadelphia to accommodate for Ferguson playing every day. The game AI was in charge of everything else including all trades and signings).

The 1888 season for the Philadelphia Quakers as a whole did not start off too well. After a quick start they had fallen back to .500 by mid-May. Then the injury bug hit, and four regulars went down for the bulk of the rest of the year. While the Quakers rallied in the second half, they had dug themselves too deep a hole behind the Detroit Wolverines. Ferguson finished the season 30-23 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, leading the National League in WAR (10.1), innings pitched (479.2), most K/9 (4.50), and fewest BB/9 (1.05). He was tied for second in shutouts with 3. At the plate he hit a respectable .275 in 374 AB with 6 HR and 44 RBI, finishing with a 3.7 batting WAR, which was third on the Quakers.

His 1889 season ended early as he succumbed to injury on June 20th. While his pitching that year was not up to par (10-10, 3.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) his bat was more than making up for it. He had been leading the National League in OPS (.971) and was second in BA, OBP, and SLG when he went down.

In 1890, the now 27-year old was hitting his prime. The Quakers had now officially changed their name to the Phillies, and Ferguson continued to anchor their pitching staff. The Phillies were a game behind the Pittsburgh Alleghenys approaching the last series of the season. As luck would have it, they faced the Alleghenys in that series. Ferguson was given the ball for the first game of the three-game set. Unfortunately, Ferguson did not have his best stuff and he wasn’t helped by 5 Phillies errors. The Pirates won 7-2. They finished 91-63, one game behind Pittsburgh. That last start notwithstanding, Ferguson had bounced back from his injury to further his reputation, going 27-19 and leading the league in ERA (2.28) and WHIP (1.10). He finished 3rd in WAR (9.9). Playing right field when he wasn’t pitching, he again finished third on the team in batting WAR (3.9), hitting .283 with 73 RBI. If baseball back then had a most valuable player award and an award to honor the best pitcher, Ferguson would have won both of them.

1891 once again started slowly for both the Phillies, who quickly sank to 7th place and stayed there for most of the year. Management wouldn’t have it, and made the deal that would be celebrated for a generation. The Phillies traded four players: Billy Clingman, Fred Siefke, Bill Merritt, and Floyd Ritter to the Louisville Colonels for Toad Ramsey.

Toad, apart from having a memorable first name, is widely credited with inventing the knuckleball thanks to a tendon injury he had suffered in his index finger. In 1886 and 1887 he had two dominant seasons including one where he struck out 499 batters. In real life his career took a very quick downturn and he was out of the league after the 1890 season. However, in this world he was still the single most dominant pitcher in the American Association, winning 165 games over five years.

Toad Ramsey (from Baseball-Reference.com)

The deal struck new life into the Phillies who went on a second half tear. In September they brought it to a new level, winning an incredible 16 straight games to end the season, with Ferguson winning his last 7 starts. But it was too little too late as they finished 2 games behind the Chicago Colts. But with two superstars leading the team, the time was ripe for the Phillies to finally make a push for a championship.

1892 turned out to be Ferguson’s best year yet. He tossed his first no-hitter on August 19th against the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up only 1 walk. Ferguson and Toad Ramsey provided a dominant one-two punch that propelled the Phillies to their first ever National League pennant.* While Ferguson certainly shined, going 28-20 with a 2.24 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.7 WAR, he was outdone by Toad who won the pitching triple crown, going 33-16 with a 1.59 ERA and 332 Ks.

With Toad and Ferguson, the Phillies cruised to the NL pennant again in 1893, finishing 13 games ahead of the Pirates. Ramsey won the pitching triple crown for the second straight year going an amazing 31-8 with a 1.97 ERA and 201 Ks. Ferguson again played second fiddle going 25-10 with a 3.25 ERA.

Toad would continue his amazing run, winning the pitching triple crown for an incredible third straight year in 1894, and fourth in 1895. But not all was stellar with Ferguson. In 1893 he had his worst season on the mound since his injury-shortened 1889 campaign, with the fewest wins, innings pitched, Ks, and WAR since that season. As their center fielder on days when he wasn’t pitching, Ferguson also had his worst year at the plate since his rookie campaign of 1884, hitting only .248 with 47 RBI and a 1.4 WAR in 508 plate appearances. Was the grind of playing every day getting to him?

Prior to the 1895 season in which Ferguson’s pitching stats declined farther, the decision was made to remove him from playing the field on his non-pitching days. Instead, Kid Gleason – who would often have the back end spot in the Phillies rotation – became a full time 3B, allowing Ferguson to focus solely on pitching. That move paid off as Ferguson had a bounce-back year at the age of 32, going 28-11 with a 2.75 ERA and a 9.2 WAR. The added rest also helped his hitting, as he topped .300 for the first time since 1889. More importantly Ferguson and Ramsey once again led the Phillies to a runaway NL pennant, as they won the league by 21 games over Cincinnati.

On May 9, 1896 Charlie Ferguson and the Phillies beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 17-1 for Ferguson’s 300th win, going the distance and giving up only 5 hits and no walks. Although the Phillies fell short of the pennant that season, Ferguson and Ramsey would win it again in 1897 for the Phillies’ fourth title.

Things went downhill for the Phillies as the century came to a close. They were leading the National League in late June of 1898 but then went on a 7-30 run to drop to last place despite excellent pitching from Ferguson and Ramsey. Ramsey would once again win the pitching triple crown (for an incredible 5th time in his career) and also notched his 400th win during that campaign.

Ferguson would get his 400th win in July of 1900 in a 3-2 win over the Chicago Orphans. The Phillies were back on top as they had signed Deacon Phillippe who now gave the Phillies three formidable starters. They won the National League pennant by 11 games over the Brooklyn Superbas.

That would be Ferguson’s and Ramsey’s last pennant. Toad would go on to win his 450th game in June of 1901, and Ferguson his in July of 1903 at the age of 40. On August 15th 1903, 39-year old Toad Ramsey beat the Chicago Cubs 9-4 for his 500th career win, but those two milestones weren’t enough as the Phillies finished third in the NL. In 1904 Ferguson would be removed from the rotation and relegated to mop up duties while Ramsey remained strong, winning his unprecedented 550th game September 27, 1905. and his 600th on July 31, 1908.

Ferguson would retire at the end of the 1905 season with a career record of 456-312, a 2.85 ERA and a 146.2 career WAR. His 456 wins would have put him second behind Cy Young, and his 146.2 career WAR would have been third behind Cy Young and Walter Johnson.

Toad would stick around for four more seasons, and would win his 600th game on July 31, 1908. He retired at the end of the 1909 season with a mind-boggling 603 wins, 5587 strikeouts, and a career 257.2 WAR. His wins and career WAR would top today’s all-time leaderboard, as would his 8636 career innings pitched. He would have been second all-time in strikeouts behind Nolan Ryan.

Meanwhile, without Charlie Ferguson and Toad Ramsey the real life Phillies would have to wait until 1915 for their first pennant and 1980 for their first World Series win.

* The World Series in its present form did not start until 1903. There was a championship series between the American Association and the National League up until the American Association folded after the 1891 season. While in some years there was either a split season championship series or a 1st vs 2nd place series at the end of the year, those permutations were not included in this sim, so there was no championship series from 1892 until 1903.

Baseball, OOTP, Sabermetrics

Exploring the Impact of Fielding on Wins

April 9, 2015 Chris Schreiner Leave a comment

We’ve previously used Out of the Park Baseball (OOTP) to test out theories on hitting, such as how well OPS and Runs Created predict team win totals. The sabermetrics folk have made great strides in trying to create meaningful statistics for fielding, including Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Total Zone (TZ), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). We won’t go into great detail about what each of those do – FanGraphs does a better job than we ever could. But it’s not as easy to take the results of any of these statistics and translate it to what matters most – a player’s contributions to a team’s win total.

Baseball Reference does include DRS into its WAR calculations, but there’s always a danger when we’re extrapolating one step beyond any one particular calculation. For instance, DRS provides an estimate of runs saved which is then used in a calculation to estimate how many additional wins you might expect. But each of those calculations will have an error range and will be impacted by a myriad of other factors. We were looking to use OOTP for a more direct way to see how fielding impacts a team’s win total.

Our first foray simply looked at teams with different overall fielding capabilities. OOTP uses several different ratings for fielding, available when editing player characteristics. For instance for an infielder there is Infield Range, Infield Error, Infield Arm, and Turn Double Plays. Each rating is based on a scale of 1-250.

We set up an 11-team league, with each player on each team having the same overall fielding ability but with each team varying in their abilities. So for instance one team had each player with a “1” rating for each fielding ability, while another team had each player with a “250” for each fielding ability. All players had the same league average ratings for hitting. All pitchers were equivalent pitchers with average ratings, and an average ground/fly ratio.

We simmed three seasons (with all injuries and player development turned off). Of course, the better fielding teams did better, but it was somewhat surprising as to how much better they did. The team made up of the highest rated fielders average a record of 113-49 with the team made of the lowest rated fielders went and average of 42-120.

What was also interesting were the number of errors committed per game. The best fielding team committed only .28 errors per game with the worst fielding team 1.31. We would have thought with everyone on the team having a 1 rating for every fielding attribute that they would have kicked and thrown the ball around more. But they still on average gave one extra out to the other team than the best fielding team. By comparison in 2014 the Reds had the fewest errors (.62 errors/game) while the Indians had the most (.72 errors/game).
The more important difference seemed to be in balls the fielders didn’t get to due to range issues. Defensive efficiency for the best fielding team was .768 while for the worst it was .606. In 2014 the best team DEF was .712 by the Reds and the worst was .672 by the Twins.

So let’s try to extrapolate this to some meaningful MLB differences. Since the original league took fielding ratings to extremes, we created a league with teams whose defensive ratings more closely resembled MLB. In this 9-team league, fielding ratings for all players ranged between 115 and 155 (the range in the original sim which more closely resembled MLB fielding stats).

Again we simmed three seasons, and the difference between the first and last place teams was again quite large. The top fielding team went on average 92-70 while the worst fielding team went 71-91 – a whole 21 game difference. Here are the results:

Along with charts for errors/game compared to wins and team DEF compared to wins.

There are certainly many factors that can influence these results – most notably around balls hit in play (e.g. increased strikeout rate, HR %). But this certainly does suggest that getting a good grasp on accurately rating fielders can have a big impact on a team’s win total.

Baseball, Book Review

“Wherever I Wind Up” Book Review

February 8, 2015 Craig Kornacki Leave a comment

Baseball and writing. It’s been said baseball is the most written about sport. Baseball has a long, rich history. Do yourself a favor. Find a book about America’s pastime and learn more about the sport you love!

The New York Mets colors are orange and blue. Do you know why? When New York City lost the Giants and the Dodgers to the West Coast, MLB awarded NYC a new team. The Mets put Brooklyn Dodger blue and New York Giant orange into their uniform to honor the past. Sure, you can Google these facts, but it’s quite satisfying to discover a fact by delving into a book.

In a semi-occasional series, I will be reviewing my favorite baseball books on the Bullpen By Committee blog site. Here is one book about a former New York Met that is enjoyable and heck, I even learned something new.

Title/Author: Wherever I Wind Up: My Quest for Truth, Authenticity and the Perfect Knuckleball, R.A. Dickey with Wayne Coffey

Rating: 3 ½ out of 4 Bases (Solid Triple – Very Good)

Review:

R.A. Dickey is a geek athlete. His book “Wherever I Wind Up” with Wayne Coffey is proof of that. I use the term “geek athlete” as a compliment of the highest order. I believe that some athletes that write books have a bit of nerdiness to them and Dickey is decidedly one. How many professional ballplayers have a B.A. in English Lit and know who William Faulkner is? In the book, the writers present Dickey as a smart, thoughtful person who also happens to be a ballplayer. In the foreword of the book, Dickey writes that he has a fantastic memory and it is in evidence several times in this tome.

Dickey was a former first round can’t-miss prospect for the Texas Rangers back in 1996 who was offered a $810,000 signing bonus. During his initial physical, team doctors found that Dickey had no ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm. The Rangers could not deal with his new-found freakiness, so his signing bonus was immediately withdrawn. After a long battle back to the big leagues, Dickey promptly served up 6 HRs in 3 innings in his first game back and set a major league record in the process. Subsequently, Dickey burned out in his first shot at the majors. Thus, began Dickey’s geek athlete journey.

During one minor league stop on his Odysseian tour, Dickey tests positive for an opiate. It turns out that he ate a poppy-seed chicken casserole made the night before by his chaplain’s wife. It’s kind of dorky, right? A few years later, he attempts to swim across the Missouri River while his teammates watch, but chickens out mid-swim and has to swim back. The geek factor is definitely high here! He also talks about biking to the ballpark and liking Star Wars. Welcome to the Geek Athlete Club Mr. Dickey, would you like to be our president?

R.A eventually pulls his geekiest move yet in an attempt to save his baseball career – he learns how to throw a knuckleball. For those of you who might not know, the knuckleball is the most difficult and nerdiest pitch to throw. It’s a hard pitch to throw and not easy to hit or catch either. Dickey eventually masters the pitch, makes it to the big leagues and stays there! He ends up becoming one of the top NL pitchers in 2012.

This was an excellent book! After all, it was written by a geek athlete. As a similarly frustrated athlete in my younger years, I very much identified with struggling with a sport. I would recommend the book to any baseball fan, geek and non-geek alike.

Style: Book has a good flow and writing often reads like listening to a conversation.

Stats: Since we are sabermetrically-minded here at Bullpen By Committee, I have provided a link to RA Dickey’s career stat line:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicker.01-pitch.shtml

URLs to find Book:

Amazon

Barnes and Noble