What if it was Called Sandy Koufax Surgery?

June 24, 2015 Chris Schreiner Leave a comment

Sandy Koufax was one of the most dominant pitchers in the history of baseball, and at the age of 36 was the youngest to ever be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

(Source: Baseball-Reference.com)

The reason for his enshrinement at such a young age was due to his early retirement due to an arthritic condition in his elbow. He pitched the entire ’65 and ’66 seasons in extreme pain but still dominated, pitching over 320 innings in both seasons going a combined 53-17 with 699 strikeouts – and winning the Cy Young both years.

Koufax retired shortly after the 1966 World Series at the age of 30.

Dr. Frank Jobe once said that Koufax had basically the same injury as Tommy John, and that if he had developed the pioneering surgery ten years earlier (Dr. Jobe was already 41 by the time Koufax retired) the surgery would likely have been named after Koufax instead.

We always find it interesting to play out these “what if” scenarios that abound in baseball, so naturally we wanted to see what might have happened if Sandy Koufax had been able to extend his career.

As always, we used OOTP16, starting a historical league on January 1, 1967. In this world, Koufax became the pioneer for the ligament replacement surgery. Having undergone the surgery immediately after the ’66 World Series meant Koufax would likely be ready to play again by the beginning of the ’68 season.

Without Koufax, the ’67 Dodgers slipped back as their offense struggled, finishing the season 82-80, 17 games back of the Cardinals. But it was their hitting instead of Koufax’s absence that was the major reason, as the Dodgers hit a collective NL worst .236 with a lowly .627 OPS.

Koufax was ready to take his rightful place as the ace of the staff at the beginning of the ’68 season. His first start on Opening Day was against the Phillies. Whether rust or nerves got the best of him, he gave up 3 hits, a walk, and 3 runs in the opening frame. He settled down after that, giving up 7 hits over the final 8 frames for a complete game, but the damage was done and the Dodgers lost 3-2.

A no-decision and a tough luck 1-0 loss dropped him to 0-2 before Koufax really caught his groove, throwing 23 straight scoreless innings. He would improve his record to 4-3 before arm troubles would once again strike. He missed two starts with inflammation and struggled once he came back, uncharacteristically dropping 5 straight decisions, including 2 in which he gave up 5 earned runs. But he bounced back with a complete game shutout of Cincinnati to go into the All-Star break. Despite a 5-8 record, his 2.17 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.2 WAR was good enough for a spot on the All-Star team.

Meanwhile the Dodgers were rebounding from their lackluster ’68 season and were leading the NL at the break – but 5 other teams were within 4.5 games.

Right after the break Don Drysdale wrecked his elbow and would miss the remainder of the season. Without Drysdale and with a completely anemic lineup, the Dodgers couldn’t hold it together in the second half. They plummeted down to 6^th place, 10 games behind the NL champion Phillies.

Koufax finished his comeback season with everything except his W-L record resembling his prior dominant years. He ended 11-16, but with a 2.07 ERA, 273 Ks in 270 IP, and a 10.2 WAR. He led the league in strikeouts, WAR, complete games (18), and shutouts (7). Voters didn’t hold his record against him, as he won his 4^th Cy Young award.

In ’69 with the new NL alignment, the Dodgers still couldn’t quite get it altogether. Shortcomings at the plate were not addressed during the offseason and Drysdale would miss the entire season as well. Though they finished with a winning record (87-75) the Dodgers finished only 4^th in the new NL West, 15 games behind the Astros.

Koufax was still in prime form, however. He finished the season especially strong, going 8-1 over his final 10 starts, 6 of which were complete games. Even with the higher pitching mounds introduced in ’69, at no point during the entire season was his ERA over 2.66. Once again he led the league in strikeouts (320) and WAR (14.0), going 20-10 overall with a 2.10 ERA. He would win both the Cy Young and MVP Award in that season.

The 1970’s arrived and the now 34-year old Koufax wasn’t losing a single step. Again he led the Dodgers’ pitching staff and dominated opposing hitters. A mid-August swoon where he gave up 26 ER over 5 starts was the only blemish, though that period was attributed to some lingering arm issues which caused him to miss 2 starts. Once he returned he went back to his old form, winning his last four decisions.

With Drysdale back, the two of them anchored the pitching staff. The previously anemic Dodgers lineup was bolstered by the production of Al Herrera, who hit 24 HR, a young Steve Garvey, and the acquisition of Earl Williams as the number one catcher, who smashed 40 HR. With all the pieces in place, the Dodgers won the NL West, going 92-69.

Koufax and the Dodgers would face the Phillies for the NL Championship, with Koufax pitching game 1 against Rick Wise. Wise outperformed Koufax pitching 7 shutout innings of 5-hit ball in a 3-0 win. The teams would split the next two before Wise and Koufax would square off again with the Dodgers facing elimination. This time Koufax came out on top 3-2, thanks to a two-run HR from Williams. Drysdale would finish them off in the 5^th game and the Dodgers went on to face the Tigers in the World Series.

Koufax was excellent in his first World Series start since 1966, pitching a complete game 4-hitter with a sac fly as the only run scored. Unfortunately for him, the Tigers had acquired Jerry Reuss who pitched a shutout and the Dodgers lost 1-0. Once again the teams would split the next two games and Koufax would face Reuss in Game Four. Koufax pitched another complete game winning 5-1. The teams would again split the next two games setting up another Koufax/Reuss matchup for the 7^th and decisive game.

Koufax cruised through the first 3 innings but in the 4^th was forced to exit the game as his arm acted up yet again. The bullpen pitched admirably but a solo shot by Jim Spencer in the 5^th was the only run of the game and the Tigers blanked the Dodgers to win the World Series. For Koufax it was a heart wrenching end to an otherwise brilliant season.

1971 was another down year for the Dodgers – their worst since 1958 winning only 75 games. There was one bright spot, which occurred on July 21^st. Koufax took the mound and pitched a complete game 7-hitter against the Reds to win his 200^th career game. He finished that season 17-12 with a 2.26 ERA and 11.9 WAR, good enough for his 6^th Cy Young.

He would win 20 games again in 1972 to go along with a 2.58 ERA and an 8.3 WAR. On October 3^rd he took the mound against the Atlanta Braves who got to him early and often. While he stuck it out to go 7 innings, he tied his career high by giving up 9 earned runs. That outing was topped off by a 2-run HR by Hal McRae. It would be the last pitch Koufax would throw, as he retired at the end of the season at age 36.

Coming back from Tommy John surgery extended Koufax’s career 5 full seasons and allowed him to reach the 200-win milestone along with winning 3 more Cy Youngs and one more MVP. He finished 252-143 with a 2.62 ERA and a career 116.8 WAR. While Koufax certainly wasn’t the only factor, he contributed to giving the Dodgers one extra NL championship than they did in real life, but his arm let him down in the most important game.

So would Koufax coming back have positively or negatively affected his legacy? He still didn’t rack up 300 wins, but his 6 Cy Young Awards would today be second only to Roger Clemens (7) – a number made more impressive by the fact that before his injury it was a combined AL/NL award. Add to that the likelihood that Tommy John surgery would have been called Sandy Koufax surgery makes us wish Dr. Frank Jobe had developed his groundbreaking surgery earlier.

Baseball, OOTP

Why Babe Ruth Should Have Hit Leadoff

June 2, 2015 Chris Schreiner 9 Comments

Most baseball fans have a good handle on what type of hitter should in which spot in the batting order. For instance, a speedster should hit leadoff, your big slugger hitting cleanup, etc. Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andy Dolphin in their book “The Book” provided statistical analysis to optimize a batting order. They based their analyses on the number of plate appearances and the frequency of base/out states (e.g. how often the cleanup hitter comes to bat with runners in scoring position).

I won’t go through all the explanation as Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin did a much better job. If you don’t want to read the original source, Beyond the Box Score did a great job providing an overview and Bluebird Banter went through some of the statistical analysis.

We wanted to see how that analysis would transfer to actual wins and losses. We looked at two scenarios using the greatest leadoff hitter, Rickey Henderson, and the greatest hitter of all-time, Babe Ruth.

As we normally do, we used OOTP16 and created 9 teams filled with average clone position players and pitchers. Then we imported the 1982 version of Rickey Henderson and cloned him to make nine Rickey’s – one for each team. For each team, he hit in a different spot in the batting order (including the ninth spot – there was no DH in this league so the pitcher batted eighth on that team).

Then we simmed almost 2000 games for each team, and (WARNING!!!! MATH TERM!!!) checked the binomial probability of each winning percentage to see if it was significantly different than what you might see flipping a coin 2000 times.

Here are the winning percentages for when Rickey hit in each spot in the lineup and the result of the binomial distribution calculation:

All values were not significantly different from a coin flip (a value of less than .050 would have meant they lost more significantly more games and a value greater than .950 would have meant they won significantly more games).

Surprisingly, the second spot in the batting order was the closest to being significant – but in the opposite way than expected, with the team losing more games than they won when Rickey hit second. The team performed the best when Rickey hit sixth.

So after almost 2000 games (more than 12 full seasons), it didn’t significantly matter where Rickey batted in the lineup. Each team’s win total was no different than what you might expect from flipping a coin 2000 times.

We did the same for Babe Ruth, using the 1921 version of Ruth that won our League of All-Time Greats. With Ruth, we found different results.

Hitting Ruth leadoff resulted in a significantly greater number of wins than expected by chance, due to the number of additional plate appearances by the leadoff hitter (4.66 PA/game as a leadoff hitter compared to 4.46 in the #2 spot, decreasing steadily down to 3.81 in the #9 hole).

Hitting Ruth second approached but did not meet the criteria for significance, while hitting Ruth 9^th approached but did not reach significance for fewer wins than by chance. Surprisingly, hitting Ruth 5^th did result in significantly fewer wins than expected over the course of almost 2000 games. We have no explanation for this, as Tango’s analysis says the number of plate appearances and the expected baserunner/out situations has the #5 spot as the fourth most important (after #1, 2, and 4).

Ruth’s RBI stats would have likely suffered by hitting him leadoff – in 12+ seasons he had 7% fewer RBIs than the Babe Ruth who hit 3rd and 18% fewer RBIs than the one who hit 4th – but the extra plate appearances would have likely led to marginally more home runs (4% more in our sim), and his relatively high on-base percentage would have had him on more for later hitters to bring in (the leadoff Ruth had 15% more runs).

Most importantly hitting him in the leadoff spot might have meant even more wins for the Yankees.

You can follow us on Twitter @BullpenByComm

Baseball

Learning French from Joe Maddon

May 16, 2015 Steve Pierpaoli Leave a comment

Watching ESPN on a quiet Saturday morning, I learned some French from super-cool Joe Maddon…

The Cubs-Pirates game from Friday had a strange ending. In the 10th inning, on a bases-loaded one out shallow fly to right by Matt Szczur, Gregory Polanco threw out Starlin Castro at the plate. In the same situation in the 12th inning, on a bases-loaded one out shallow fly to right by Matt Szczur, Gregory Polanco fell down and missed the catch. Starlin Castro scored easily.

Joe Maddon described the odd (and statistically improbable) ending as “Déjà-vu all over again. Unbelievable.” What caught my ear is Maddon’s slightly different pronunciation – his “déjà-vu” rhymed with “hey hey you”, not the “hey ha you” I’m accustomed to hearing.

Of course, I needed to check if Maddon was right – the aptly-name AskAFrenchGuy WordPress site tells me he’s speaking French like a French guy.

Super-cool. Aller Cubs Aller!

Baseball, Career Replay, OOTP

How Charlie Ferguson and a Toad Could Have Altered Phillies’ History

May 13, 2015 Chris Schreiner 5 Comments

Charlie Ferguson was a young promising pitcher for the Philadelphia Quakers in the 1880’s who more than held his own with the bat. SABR biographer Paul Hoffman claims that Charlie Ferguson was one of the “first tragic figures in major-league baseball” and could have “become one of the greatest players of all time”. Ferguson passed away at the age of 25 before the 1888 season from typhoid fever. His career stats were impressive.

On some days when he wasn’t pitching, he played in the field. In what would be his final season, he played 27 games at 2B, 5 at 3B, and 6 in the OF. In 300 plate appearances, he hit .337 with 85 RBIs, 13 SB, and an .886 OPS. He was well on his way to being an everyday player.

In his SABR bio, Hoffman notes that in 1925 – a whole 37 years after his death – a sports editor for the Philadelphia Evening Public Ledger called Ferguson “the greatest ballplayer who ever lived.” Hoffman concludes the bio by saying “One can only imagine how many games Ferguson might have won or what kind of everyday player he would have developed into had he lived to play an additional 12 to 15 years.”

Charlie Ferguson (from Baseball-Reference.com)

We decided to imagine by replaying history as if Charlie had never succumbed to typhoid fever.

We went back to 1888 using OOTP 2016 (and restructured the league to have accurate teams and rosters for that year). Charlie Ferguson then took his rightful place at the top of the rotation as well as their starting second baseman on days he did not pitch (all team settings were set to AI control except for the lineups and rotation for Philadelphia to accommodate for Ferguson playing every day. The game AI was in charge of everything else including all trades and signings).

The 1888 season for the Philadelphia Quakers as a whole did not start off too well. After a quick start they had fallen back to .500 by mid-May. Then the injury bug hit, and four regulars went down for the bulk of the rest of the year. While the Quakers rallied in the second half, they had dug themselves too deep a hole behind the Detroit Wolverines. Ferguson finished the season 30-23 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, leading the National League in WAR (10.1), innings pitched (479.2), most K/9 (4.50), and fewest BB/9 (1.05). He was tied for second in shutouts with 3. At the plate he hit a respectable .275 in 374 AB with 6 HR and 44 RBI, finishing with a 3.7 batting WAR, which was third on the Quakers.

His 1889 season ended early as he succumbed to injury on June 20th. While his pitching that year was not up to par (10-10, 3.61 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) his bat was more than making up for it. He had been leading the National League in OPS (.971) and was second in BA, OBP, and SLG when he went down.

In 1890, the now 27-year old was hitting his prime. The Quakers had now officially changed their name to the Phillies, and Ferguson continued to anchor their pitching staff. The Phillies were a game behind the Pittsburgh Alleghenys approaching the last series of the season. As luck would have it, they faced the Alleghenys in that series. Ferguson was given the ball for the first game of the three-game set. Unfortunately, Ferguson did not have his best stuff and he wasn’t helped by 5 Phillies errors. The Pirates won 7-2. They finished 91-63, one game behind Pittsburgh. That last start notwithstanding, Ferguson had bounced back from his injury to further his reputation, going 27-19 and leading the league in ERA (2.28) and WHIP (1.10). He finished 3rd in WAR (9.9). Playing right field when he wasn’t pitching, he again finished third on the team in batting WAR (3.9), hitting .283 with 73 RBI. If baseball back then had a most valuable player award and an award to honor the best pitcher, Ferguson would have won both of them.

1891 once again started slowly for both the Phillies, who quickly sank to 7th place and stayed there for most of the year. Management wouldn’t have it, and made the deal that would be celebrated for a generation. The Phillies traded four players: Billy Clingman, Fred Siefke, Bill Merritt, and Floyd Ritter to the Louisville Colonels for Toad Ramsey.

Toad, apart from having a memorable first name, is widely credited with inventing the knuckleball thanks to a tendon injury he had suffered in his index finger. In 1886 and 1887 he had two dominant seasons including one where he struck out 499 batters. In real life his career took a very quick downturn and he was out of the league after the 1890 season. However, in this world he was still the single most dominant pitcher in the American Association, winning 165 games over five years.

Toad Ramsey (from Baseball-Reference.com)

The deal struck new life into the Phillies who went on a second half tear. In September they brought it to a new level, winning an incredible 16 straight games to end the season, with Ferguson winning his last 7 starts. But it was too little too late as they finished 2 games behind the Chicago Colts. But with two superstars leading the team, the time was ripe for the Phillies to finally make a push for a championship.

1892 turned out to be Ferguson’s best year yet. He tossed his first no-hitter on August 19th against the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up only 1 walk. Ferguson and Toad Ramsey provided a dominant one-two punch that propelled the Phillies to their first ever National League pennant.* While Ferguson certainly shined, going 28-20 with a 2.24 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.7 WAR, he was outdone by Toad who won the pitching triple crown, going 33-16 with a 1.59 ERA and 332 Ks.

With Toad and Ferguson, the Phillies cruised to the NL pennant again in 1893, finishing 13 games ahead of the Pirates. Ramsey won the pitching triple crown for the second straight year going an amazing 31-8 with a 1.97 ERA and 201 Ks. Ferguson again played second fiddle going 25-10 with a 3.25 ERA.

Toad would continue his amazing run, winning the pitching triple crown for an incredible third straight year in 1894, and fourth in 1895. But not all was stellar with Ferguson. In 1893 he had his worst season on the mound since his injury-shortened 1889 campaign, with the fewest wins, innings pitched, Ks, and WAR since that season. As their center fielder on days when he wasn’t pitching, Ferguson also had his worst year at the plate since his rookie campaign of 1884, hitting only .248 with 47 RBI and a 1.4 WAR in 508 plate appearances. Was the grind of playing every day getting to him?

Prior to the 1895 season in which Ferguson’s pitching stats declined farther, the decision was made to remove him from playing the field on his non-pitching days. Instead, Kid Gleason – who would often have the back end spot in the Phillies rotation – became a full time 3B, allowing Ferguson to focus solely on pitching. That move paid off as Ferguson had a bounce-back year at the age of 32, going 28-11 with a 2.75 ERA and a 9.2 WAR. The added rest also helped his hitting, as he topped .300 for the first time since 1889. More importantly Ferguson and Ramsey once again led the Phillies to a runaway NL pennant, as they won the league by 21 games over Cincinnati.

On May 9, 1896 Charlie Ferguson and the Phillies beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 17-1 for Ferguson’s 300th win, going the distance and giving up only 5 hits and no walks. Although the Phillies fell short of the pennant that season, Ferguson and Ramsey would win it again in 1897 for the Phillies’ fourth title.

Things went downhill for the Phillies as the century came to a close. They were leading the National League in late June of 1898 but then went on a 7-30 run to drop to last place despite excellent pitching from Ferguson and Ramsey. Ramsey would once again win the pitching triple crown (for an incredible 5th time in his career) and also notched his 400th win during that campaign.

Ferguson would get his 400th win in July of 1900 in a 3-2 win over the Chicago Orphans. The Phillies were back on top as they had signed Deacon Phillippe who now gave the Phillies three formidable starters. They won the National League pennant by 11 games over the Brooklyn Superbas.

That would be Ferguson’s and Ramsey’s last pennant. Toad would go on to win his 450th game in June of 1901, and Ferguson his in July of 1903 at the age of 40. On August 15th 1903, 39-year old Toad Ramsey beat the Chicago Cubs 9-4 for his 500th career win, but those two milestones weren’t enough as the Phillies finished third in the NL. In 1904 Ferguson would be removed from the rotation and relegated to mop up duties while Ramsey remained strong, winning his unprecedented 550th game September 27, 1905. and his 600th on July 31, 1908.

Ferguson would retire at the end of the 1905 season with a career record of 456-312, a 2.85 ERA and a 146.2 career WAR. His 456 wins would have put him second behind Cy Young, and his 146.2 career WAR would have been third behind Cy Young and Walter Johnson.

Toad would stick around for four more seasons, and would win his 600th game on July 31, 1908. He retired at the end of the 1909 season with a mind-boggling 603 wins, 5587 strikeouts, and a career 257.2 WAR. His wins and career WAR would top today’s all-time leaderboard, as would his 8636 career innings pitched. He would have been second all-time in strikeouts behind Nolan Ryan.

Meanwhile, without Charlie Ferguson and Toad Ramsey the real life Phillies would have to wait until 1915 for their first pennant and 1980 for their first World Series win.

* The World Series in its present form did not start until 1903. There was a championship series between the American Association and the National League up until the American Association folded after the 1891 season. While in some years there was either a split season championship series or a 1st vs 2nd place series at the end of the year, those permutations were not included in this sim, so there was no championship series from 1892 until 1903.

Uncategorized

Fantasy Ramblings : Closer Merry-Go-Round

May 7, 2015 Craig Kornacki Leave a comment

Is it just me or is it getting harder to find a closer for your fantasy team lately? Going into the season this year, I thought I was all set. I actually had 3 closers that were declared and ready to go: San Diego’s Joaquin Benoit, New York Met Jennry Mejia and the Dodgers’ Joel Peralta. Three closers in an NL only league could win you a championship!

Then BAM!

On Sunday, April 5, the Padres traded for Craig Kimbrel demoting Benoit from closer to setup man. The exact next day, news was released that Mejia had taken a banned substance and would be suspended. Kind of a punch to the gut, but I still had Peralta who was set to close with Kenley Jansen being out.

Peralta was OK for a little while, he got 3 saves. Then, he was put on the DL on April 26. Geez. A week or so before Peralta went down, I took an $11 waiver chance on Bobby Parnell. He was shelved for a little while since he’s returning from Tommy John surgery.

I picked up one-time closer Jim Johnson, but he hasn’t been closing for Atlanta. I passed on John Axford. I was worried if I picked him up his arm would fall off or something.

So, by accident this year, I am punting saves. I’m not going to try to get a closer from the waiver wire for a little while. It was just not meant to be. Maybe Joaqim Soria will come over to the NL in a trade. Perhaps Billy Wagner will come out of retirement. I can only dream.

Guess I’ll take solace in the fact that my record is 2-1-1 and I’m tied for second place in my division.

Baseball, OOTP

How Many Wins Does a Great Fielder Give a Team?

April 30, 2015 Chris Schreiner 2 Comments

Recently we examined the impact at a team level of fielding, finding that, with everything else being equal, fielding can have a huge impact on a team’s win total. This is true even at fielding levels comparable to what we see in MLB.

It only follows to take it a step further and do the same thing at a positional level. Of course a slick-fielding shortstop should be more valuable than other positions (again, all else being equal).

So we followed a similar methodology as we did in our team-level analysis, except that we used only two teams: a control team and an experimental team. Again using OOTP 16, we built both teams by making clones of one player and one pitcher with average ratings – including average fielding ratings. We then modified one positional player on the experimental team and optimized their relevant fielding ratings, and only gave them experience in the position of interest to keep the AI manager from using them in different positions. Player development and injuries were turned off.

We then simmed five 162-game seasons to see what benefit having the optimized fielder had on the team’s chances of winning, and tracked the fielding stats for each.
Below is the impact on a team’s win total based on those five seasons. Granted there is some noise in the data (we could sim it 1000 times per position to reduce the noise, but hey, we’re not getting paid for this). Also, it turns out the single position player we cloned was a lefty, and all pitchers were righties, so there is a strong bias towards position players on the right side of the diamond. Again, we could correct for this if someone wanted to pay us.

The glaring finding is the importance of a superior defending center fielder. The ability to get to balls in the gap to take away extra base hits turns out to provide more than twice as many extra wins per 162 games as any other position.

The other finding is that with the exception of catchers, all superior fielders had MORE errors per season than their average fielding counterparts. The logic being the got to more balls in play and therefore had more opportunities for errors.

Again this is only looking at the benefit of a great fielder compared to an average one. It would be different to look at a situation like Yasmany Tomas and the D’backs decision to put his less-than-stellar defense in at third, and the impact of a terrible fielder on team wins.

Baseball, OOTP, Sabermetrics

Exploring the Impact of Fielding on Wins

April 9, 2015 Chris Schreiner Leave a comment

We’ve previously used Out of the Park Baseball (OOTP) to test out theories on hitting, such as how well OPS and Runs Created predict team win totals. The sabermetrics folk have made great strides in trying to create meaningful statistics for fielding, including Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Total Zone (TZ), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). We won’t go into great detail about what each of those do – FanGraphs does a better job than we ever could. But it’s not as easy to take the results of any of these statistics and translate it to what matters most – a player’s contributions to a team’s win total.

Baseball Reference does include DRS into its WAR calculations, but there’s always a danger when we’re extrapolating one step beyond any one particular calculation. For instance, DRS provides an estimate of runs saved which is then used in a calculation to estimate how many additional wins you might expect. But each of those calculations will have an error range and will be impacted by a myriad of other factors. We were looking to use OOTP for a more direct way to see how fielding impacts a team’s win total.

Our first foray simply looked at teams with different overall fielding capabilities. OOTP uses several different ratings for fielding, available when editing player characteristics. For instance for an infielder there is Infield Range, Infield Error, Infield Arm, and Turn Double Plays. Each rating is based on a scale of 1-250.

We set up an 11-team league, with each player on each team having the same overall fielding ability but with each team varying in their abilities. So for instance one team had each player with a “1” rating for each fielding ability, while another team had each player with a “250” for each fielding ability. All players had the same league average ratings for hitting. All pitchers were equivalent pitchers with average ratings, and an average ground/fly ratio.

We simmed three seasons (with all injuries and player development turned off). Of course, the better fielding teams did better, but it was somewhat surprising as to how much better they did. The team made up of the highest rated fielders average a record of 113-49 with the team made of the lowest rated fielders went and average of 42-120.

What was also interesting were the number of errors committed per game. The best fielding team committed only .28 errors per game with the worst fielding team 1.31. We would have thought with everyone on the team having a 1 rating for every fielding attribute that they would have kicked and thrown the ball around more. But they still on average gave one extra out to the other team than the best fielding team. By comparison in 2014 the Reds had the fewest errors (.62 errors/game) while the Indians had the most (.72 errors/game).
The more important difference seemed to be in balls the fielders didn’t get to due to range issues. Defensive efficiency for the best fielding team was .768 while for the worst it was .606. In 2014 the best team DEF was .712 by the Reds and the worst was .672 by the Twins.

So let’s try to extrapolate this to some meaningful MLB differences. Since the original league took fielding ratings to extremes, we created a league with teams whose defensive ratings more closely resembled MLB. In this 9-team league, fielding ratings for all players ranged between 115 and 155 (the range in the original sim which more closely resembled MLB fielding stats).

Again we simmed three seasons, and the difference between the first and last place teams was again quite large. The top fielding team went on average 92-70 while the worst fielding team went 71-91 – a whole 21 game difference. Here are the results:

Along with charts for errors/game compared to wins and team DEF compared to wins.

There are certainly many factors that can influence these results – most notably around balls hit in play (e.g. increased strikeout rate, HR %). But this certainly does suggest that getting a good grasp on accurately rating fielders can have a big impact on a team’s win total.

Book Review, Uncategorized

Book Review: The Matheny Manifesto

March 24, 2015 Craig Kornacki 3 Comments

Title/Author: The Matheny Manifesto: A Young Manager’s Old-School Views on Success in Sports and Life

Rating: 4 bases out of 4 (Outta the park!)

Review:

Hey, Mike Matheny wrote a baseball book! Who? Mike Matheny, the former Major League Baseball catcher who played for thirteen seasons. Who is that? Mike Matheny, the current St Louis Cardinals manager who is trying to bring character and class back into sports. Oh! Exactly.

The Matheny Manifesto, written by Matheny with Jerry B. Jenkins, is an excellent read. The book starts off with “The Matheny Manifesto”, a five page letter Matheny wrote to the parents of the little league team he coached after his playing career ended because of concussion issues. The letter is a direct, impassioned appeal to the parents- Sports should be all about the kids!

Matheny’s book is part-coach primer, part-self help book, and part biography. Matheny writes about his coaching philosophy which is based on UCLA basketball coach John Wooden’s approach – Team First, Character Counts. Matheny then offers a few tips along the way for succeeding in life and on the field. In his basic style, Matheny intersperses stories from his playing career, youth league coaching experience, and pro coaching career.

The first section of the book talks about what is wrong with youth league sports: know-it-all parents and misguided coaches. In the next section, Matheny details his ideas for improving youth leagues which include: allowing all players to try every position and having each player volunteer in the community. Lastly, Matheny discusses his keys to success. One of the keys is “Nothing Worth Doing Right Is Easy”, where Matheny details his battle with concussion symptoms which ultimately ended his career.

The Matheny Manifesto is not only a book, but also a movement. Matheny is a proponent of servant leadership and serving the community. In addition, he is a proponent of protecting athlete’s heads and assisted with the implementation of the block home plate rule which protects runners and catchers. Matheny has written a noble book which will entertain and hopefully inspire coaches and others to become leaders with character.

Style: The book is under 250 pages and has a very no-nonsense, but entertaining style.

URL to find Book:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Matheny-Manifesto-Managers-Old-School/dp/055344669X

Uncategorized

The League of All-Time Greats: The World Series

March 20, 2015 Chris Schreiner 1 Comment

Previously we posted on the setup of our league pitting the all-time greatest single seasons for batters against one another and on the outcome of the regular season. 1921 Babe Ruth and 2001 Barry Bonds both ran away with their respective divisions and were set to face each other in a 9-game World Series to determine who had the greatest single season of all time.

Ruth was confident going in, having gone 17-7 against Bonds during the regular season outscoring him 151-107. Ruth also finished the season 17 games better than Bonds, going 110-52 compared to 96-69 for Bonds.
Game 1 at Yankee Stadium continued the trend as in the bottom of the 2nd Ruth took advantage of five walks from Orval Overall and an error by Bonds trying to play catcher to take a 4-0 lead. However Barry hit a solo shot in the 3rd and played small ball in the 4th scoring three on a walk, four singles, and a sac fly to tie it up. Ruth regained the lead singling in a run in the bottom of the 4th.

That lead held until the 8th when Bonds doubled, tripled, and hit another sac fly to take a 6-5 lead. Ruth answered in the bottom of the 8th seemingly blowing the game open hitting five singles and working three walks to score 5 times to take a 10-6 lead going into the 9th.

But in the top of the 9th, Barry loaded the bases and hit a seeing eye single(likely due to Ruth’s limited range at both second base and shortstop) to knock in one before a pop out and strikeout left Ruth one out away from taking game one. But Barry wouldn’t go down that easy. A hit-by-pitch and two-run single tied the game up and we went to the bottom of the 9th.

Ruth singled to open the bottom of the 9th, then popped up. An error by Overall put runners on first and second. Ruth then grounded out advancing the runners to second and third with two down. Ruth then knocked a 1-0 pitch over Bonds playing 2nd base to bring in the game ending run to win it 11-10 and take a 1-0 series lead.

Game 2 was just as dramatic and high scoring. Bonds scored four in the top of the first frame but Ruth answered with two of his own. A grand slam highlighted a 7-run 4th for Bonds as he jumped out to a 12-5 lead. Ruth fought back with a 2-run HR of his own in the bottom of the 4th and a solo shot in the 5th. Another solo blast in the 8th made it 12-11.

Bonds went into the bottom of the 9th needing three outs to tie the series, but with one out Ruth again homered to tie the game. Bonds answered in the top of the 10th with his own one out solo shot to take the lead. In the bottom of the 10th, Ruth struck out with the tying run on second, and Bonds escaped with a 13-12 extra inning victory.

Game 3 shifted to San Francisco and also went into extra frames. Ruth hit two homers and went ahead 5-2 but Bonds hit a solo shot in the 7th and scored another in the 8th. In the bottom of the 9th down one, a one out single up the middle knocked in the tying run. It stayed 5-5 until the 11th when a two-run single with one out gave Ruth a 7-5 edge. Bonds got a 2-out single in the bottom of the 11th but that was all, and Ruth took a 2-1 series lead.

Game 4 was a relative pitcher’s duel as both Barry and the Babe combined for only 15 hits. A 6th inning solo blast from Bonds making it 3-2 was the difference as Overall shut down both teams from the 7th through the 9th. The series shifted back to New York all knotted at 2.

Game 5 saw Barry jump out in front first. A four-run 4th highlighted by a 2-run double had Bonds in front 4-0 but a solo blast from Ruth in the bottom of the frame and 2 homers in the bottom of the 8th had Ruth up on top 6-5 going into the 9th. Once more, a 9th inning lead evaporated as Bonds singled himself in to tie it at 6.

In the top of the 11th with two out Bonds scored four times with three walks, two singles, and a double to go up 10-6. While Ruth threatened by putting two on, Overall struck out the side and Bonds had his first series lead.

Thanks to 2-run homers in the bottom of the 1st and 2nd innings, Ruth took a quick 4-0 in the pivotal Game 6. But once again Bonds would not go down easy scoring one in the 3rd and three in the 4th on a single and three doubles to tie it up. Ruth scored once in the 7th and twice in the 8th and held off a 9th inning Bonds rally to win Game 6 7-5 and once again tie the series – now at three games apiece.

Back in San Francisco for Game 7, Ruth once more pulled out in front early going up 4-1 after two innings. And once more Barry came back hitting two homers in the bottom of the 3rd to tie it, then scoring two in the 4th and three more in the 7th to pull away in the first game of the series that wasn’t decided in the later innings. Bonds, who had struggled to beat Ruth all year now found himself one game away from winning it all, and had Game 8 on his home turf.

In Game 8 Ruth continued his early-inning success hitting a 2-run jack in the 1st and a solo blast in the 2nd to go up 3-1. He added another run in the 6th, and while Bonds made it interesting by hitting his own solo shot to lead off the 9th, he could do no more damage, losing 4-2. The series would indeed go the distance.

Back home at Yankee Stadium, Ruth wanted to put the 9th and decisive game away quickly, once again scoring early on. A walk followed by a 2-run blast gave him a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 2nd. Two more walks, a single and sac fly made it 4-0 after 2. Two doubles made it 5-0 in the 4th, then Bonds botched a routine grounder at second base bringing in a sixth run.

Bonds knew things looked bleak, but as through the whole series, he didn’t give up. He loaded the bases with none out in the top of the 5th and got plunked to bring in a run. A fielder’s choice made it 6-2 but there still was a long way to go.

Ruth stranded himself on third in the bottom of the 5th, and both teams were retired in order in the 6th. Bonds led off the 7th with a walk and lined a single to right-center. Then Bonds again stepped to the plate and blasted the first pitch he saw for a three-run homer to make it 6-5.

Ruth escaped further damage and maintained his one-run lead going to the 9th, just three outs away from being crowned as champion.

Once more Bonds had some late inning heroics. First he lined a 1-0 pitch into left and followed that with a single to center. Bonds then worked a walk and suddenly the bases were loaded with no one out. Bonds then sent the next pitch past the diving glove of Ruth playing first base to bring one in and tie the game. Bonds could do no more though as Overall struck him out and induced two weak popups. A golden opportunity to take the lead was squandered.

That brought up Ruth in the bottom of the 9th. He fouled two pitches off in between looking at two others that were off the plate. He stepped back and pointed to the centerfield bleachers as the crowd came to their feet. On the 2-2 pitch he took probably the hardest swing of his career…and missed. One down.

Ruth’s next at-bat also made it to the same count. On this 2-2 pitch however he connected. The ball went high and deep to the opposite field, 414 feet away from home plate. All 8 Barry Bonds clones playing the field could only stand helplessly and watch and then with heads down make their way to the dugout. Meanwhile the 1921 version of Babe Ruth circled the bases and was mobbed by himself over and over again as he crossed home plate and was crowned with having the greatest single season for a hitter of all time.

Baseball, OOTP

The League of All-Time Greats: Part 2

March 12, 2015 Chris Schreiner Leave a comment

In our last post, the League of All-Time Greats got underway, pitting the best all-time single seasons for batters up against one another in a 162-game season. April had finished with 2001 Barry Bonds slumping and 1921 Babe Ruth playing to form.

Ruth began to pull away in the Old Timers division in May, pulling off a 10-game winning streak including a three-game sweep of 2001 Sammy Sosa in which he outscored him 24-5. Bonds meanwhile clawed his way to the top of the New Timers division though his record didn’t top .500 until he beat Chuck Klein 3-1 on May 29th. Sosa, 1998 Mark McGwire, and 1932 Jimmie Foxx are bringing up the bottom of the whole league, with McGwire finishing May losing 8 of his last 9 and Foxx his last 6.

Barry really turned it around in June, going 20-10 while Babe kept pace going 19-8. By July 1st, it looked like the two of them would run away with it, with Barry up 10.5 games on Mark McGwire and Ruth 15.5 over Chuck Klein.

Most concerning for Bonds was his performance against Ruth. Barry was a meager 4-10 against him, getting outscored 89-52. This did not bode well for Barry’s chances at taking home the league title.
As the dog days of
summer rolled around though, Babe Ruth started to falter. Maybe his off-the-field antics magnified by having so many clones of himself in the locker room made him lose focus. Ruth played only .500 ball in August, though by then he had built up such a cushion over Chuck Klein that he still entered September up 14.5 games. Bonds, on the other hand, went 19-9 in August and built himself a 22-game lead over Sammy Sosa. But Bonds still could not solve Ruth, losing 4 of 7 against him in July and August.

Ruth got serious again in September pulling off a 12-game win streak to put any talk of distraction behind him. Both he and Barry pulled away as expected and finished the season more than 20 games ahead of the second place team in their respective divisions.

In all, the Old Timers performed better than the “New” Timers, with Rogers Hornsby the only team in the Old Timer division to finish below .500 at 80-82. Mark McGwire meanwhile lost 102 games in the “New” Timers division.

Chuck Klein more than held his own going 84-78 and also won the batting title hitting .329 far ahead of Rogers Hornsby at .312. As a team though, Barry Bonds finished at .288 compared to Chuck Klein’s .286. Babe Ruth won the home run crown with a modest 30. Bonds topped the leaderboard for OBP (.400), wOBA (.387) and WAR (6.3).

Next up: 1921 Babe Ruth vs. 2001 Barry Bonds in a nine-game World Series.